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Does probability have a place in .ts?
https://mail.black-squirrel.com/viewtopic.php?f=15&t=21058		 Page 1 of 1
Author:  Kaus [ Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:59 am ]
Post subject:  Does probability have a place in .ts?
So I'm taking a probabily and statistics class this semester at college and it got me thinking about its place in tradewars if it has one. Does anyone use any advanced math in any of there scripts, more specifically for pdrop, ptorp etc?

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A+B)
Where P = (The likelyhood of the sector fig being hit all things similar)

-or-
P(k out of n) = n!/k!(n-k)! * (p)k * (q)n-k

Whereas 1 is true and 0 is false I can imagine that if one wanted to they could write something that would use the above formula/s to determine the likelyhood of a path(or at least reasonably guess)
Author:  Singularity [ Wed Oct 08, 2008 3:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Does probability have a place in .ts?
Quote:
So I'm taking a probabily and statistics class this semester at college and it got me thinking about its place in tradewars if it has one. Does anyone use any advanced math in any of there scripts, more specifically for pdrop, ptorp etc?


The very nature of pdrop/ptorp is probability. Consider a basic anticipation torper. A person hits a 2-way, you find the figged adj and torp it. If the person continues on there's only 1 warp they can hit, thus a 100% probability. Ie: the probability of success is 1/(n-1) where n is the warpcount of the sector hit, assuming you remove the previous hit from consideration.

There are more complex variants. Such as short distance traffic weights versus long distance traffic weights. Anyway, what you're basically talking about is traffic analysis, and depending on the situation it can work. But the edge you gain from it in a grid defense situation is tiny compared to the effort expended.
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